June 12, 2013
When the Gezi Park protests began in Istanbul on 30 May, it was difficult to foresee that this would be the spark for something much bigger and much more virulent. When the police cracked down on protesters on May 31, many analysts, bearing in mind the history of Turkish police operations, did not expect such resistance from demonstrators and anticipated “business as usual”.
They were wrong.
Their early mistake was the same as Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s: Underestimating the resiliency and tenacity that stem from the anger and frustration experienced by a good portion of the Turkish people. Oddly enough, these are the same elements that fueled the Arab Spring, the Occupy movements, and the protests in Greece, Spain and Italy. Although the Occupy movements are all but fully disintegrated, the fighting spirit and movements of resistance seen elsewhere are firm indicators that the will of well organized, and truly wrathful and frustrated protest groups, cannot be dismissed with water canons, tear gas and rubber bullets. They may bend and slightly break down but they reform and regroup, not giving up despite the pressure.
The Turkish situation however has two very distinct elements that make it much more complex and quite different from the other types of uprising we have had the privilege to witness in the last four years. The first is the true cleavage between urban and rural areas. Erdogan does not have waning support. He has the support of most rural areas and those that richly benefited from his decade in power. These people are neither few nor powerless. In this sense, the current conflict is much more revealing of the rifts in the Turkish society than of the way it’s managed. This is why it would be realistic to foresee Erdogan having to leave but with his AKP party still firmly in power.
The second element is Erdogan’s arrogance and stubbornness. He has done nothing else but antagonize the demonstrators since the protests began, showing no willingness to grasp the reasons for the uprising. Like a father who believes he is always right, Turkey’s Prime Minister is blindly punishing signs of independence and rebellion, whatever the cost. This is compounded by the fact that Erdogan is in fact alone in his ivory tower, never questioned nor criticized, and therefore prisoner of his own thoughts and illusions.
Tuesday’s actions and discourses reflect this situation quite accurately. The police went all out to clear Taksim Square and Erdogan stated that protests will no longer be tolerated. Yet protesters returned in droves, defiant and confident in their actions. It is their courage and anger against the arrogant and authoritarian mentality of a man who perceives himself as a Sultan. In other words, this may be what happens when an immovable object is met by an unstoppable force.
While Erdogan has done a masterful job during his time in power to render useless or eliminate any opposition, including a putsch attempt, the current events are showing the cracks in the wall and the chinks in the armor. For all his might, he is no longer feared by Turks. And whatever happens over the course of the next weeks and months, the Prime Minister’s adversaries and enemies have smelled his blood and his vulnerability, which amounts to a loss in power.
We must not forget that Erdogan was by all accounts legitimately elected three times. As one protester put it, “We have free elections here. But the problem is that the person elected doesn’t listen to us.” This is a grievance heard throughout Europe and North-America for the lat 5 years. Should the Turkish PM be forced to step down, this would be the second democratically elected government leader in less than a year to be forced out by the streets (the first one, much less significant, was Québec’s Jean Charest last year). Perhaps these are the early signs of a trend that should have elected officials worried, meaning that the old ways are slowly coming to an end, and that they are forced to listen.